Valuation Modeling
2025. 4. 27. 00:10
๋ฐ˜์‘ํ˜•

๐Ÿ“˜ Valuation Modeling ์š”์•ฝ


๐ŸŸฆ 1. ๊ธฐ์—…๊ฐ€์น˜(Value) ๊ฐœ๋… ์ •๋ฆฌ

  • ๊ธฐ์—…๊ฐ€์น˜ (Enterprise Value, EV)
  • = ์˜์—…์ž์‚ฐ ๊ฐ€์น˜ + ๋น„์˜์—…์ž์‚ฐ โ€“ ์ˆœ๋ถ€์ฑ„
  • ์ฃผ์ฃผ๊ฐ€์น˜ (Equity Value)
  • = EV โ€“ ์ˆœ๋ถ€์ฑ„ = ๊ธฐ์—…์ด ์ˆœ์ˆ˜ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ฃผ์ฃผ์—๊ฒŒ ๊ท€์†๋˜๋Š” ๊ฐ€์น˜

๐Ÿ”น ๊ตฌ์„ฑ ์š”์†Œ

  • ์˜์—…์ž์‚ฐ: ์œ ๋ฌดํ˜•์ž์‚ฐ, ์žฌ๊ณ ์ž์‚ฐ, ๋งค์ถœ์ฑ„๊ถŒ ๋“ฑ
  • ๋น„์˜์—…์ž์‚ฐ: ํ˜„๊ธˆ์„ฑ ์ž์‚ฐ, ํˆฌ์ž๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ, ๋ณด์œ ์ง€๋ถ„ ๋“ฑ
  • ์ˆœ๋ถ€์ฑ„: ์ด๋ถ€์ฑ„ โ€“ ํ˜„๊ธˆ์„ฑ ์ž์‚ฐ

๐ŸŸฆ 2. ๊ฐ€์น˜ํ‰๊ฐ€ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋ก  (Valuation Approaches)

๋ฐฉ๋ฒ• ์„ค๋ช… ํ™œ์šฉ

Asset Approach์ˆœ์ž์‚ฐ ๊ธฐ์ค€ ๊ฐ€์น˜๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ/์ œ์กฐ์—… ๋“ฑ ์ž์‚ฐ ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์‚ฐ์—…
Market Approach๋น„๊ต๊ธฐ์—…/๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜EV/EBITDA, PER ๋“ฑ ๋ฉ€ํ‹ฐํ”Œ ์ ์šฉ
Income Approach๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„ ํ• ์ธDCF, EVA, RIM ๋“ฑ

๐ŸŸฆ 3. ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€ (Multiples Valuation)

  • EV/EBITDA: ๊ฐ๊ฐ€์ƒ๊ฐ ์ด์ „ ์ˆ˜์ต, ๋ฌดํ˜•์ž์‚ฐ ์˜ํ–ฅ โ†“
  • PER: ์ˆœ์ด์ต ๊ธฐ์ค€ ๋ฐฐ์ˆ˜ (์ž๋ณธ๊ตฌ์กฐ ๋ฏผ๊ฐํ•จ)
  • PBR, EV/Sales ๋“ฑ ์‚ฐ์—…๋ณ„ ํŠน์„ฑ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์„ ํƒ

โœ… ์ ์šฉ ์‹œ ์œ ์˜์‚ฌํ•ญ

  • ์ ์ • ์œ ์‚ฌ๊ธฐ์—… ์„ ์ • ๋ฐ ์žฌ๋ฌด์ง€ํ‘œ ์ •๋น„ ํ•„์š”
  • EBITDA/EBIT ์ฐจ์ด, ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋น„ ์ž์‚ฐํ™” ์—ฌ๋ถ€ ์ฃผ์˜

๐ŸŸฆ 4. DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) ๋ฐฉ์‹

  • ๊ธฐ์—…๊ฐ€์น˜ = ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ FCF์˜ ํ˜„์žฌ๊ฐ€์น˜ + ๋น„์˜์—…๊ฐ€์น˜
  • ํ• ์ธ์œจ: WACC (์ž๋ณธ๋น„์šฉ + ๋ถ€์ฑ„๋น„์šฉ)
  • Terminal Value ๊ณ„์‚ฐ: Gordon Growth or Exit Multiple ์‚ฌ์šฉ
  • FCF ์‚ฐ์ •์‹: FCF = EBIT*(1-t) + D&A โ€“ ฮ”WC โ€“ CAPEX

๊ธฐ์—…์˜ ์ž์œ ํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„์€ **์„ธํ›„์˜์—…์ด์ต(EBIT ร— (1 โ€“ ์„ธ์œจ))**์—์„œ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜์—ฌ, ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์— **๋น„ํ˜„๊ธˆ์„ฑ ๋น„์šฉ์ธ ๊ฐ๊ฐ€์ƒ๊ฐ๋น„(D&A)**๋ฅผ ๋”ํ•˜๊ณ , **์šด์ „์ž๋ณธ์˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋ถ„(ฮ”WC)**๊ณผ **์ž๋ณธ์  ์ง€์ถœ(CAPEX)**์„ ์ฐจ๊ฐํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ณ„์‚ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์ฆ‰, ์ž์œ ํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„์€ ๊ธฐ์—…์ด ๋ฒŒ์–ด๋“ค์ธ ์‹ค์ œ ํ˜„๊ธˆ ์ค‘์—์„œ ์šด์˜์— ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ํ˜„๊ธˆ๊ณผ ์žฅ๊ธฐํˆฌ์ž์— ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ํ˜„๊ธˆ์„ ์ œ์™ธํ•˜๊ณ  ๋‚จ๋Š” ๊ธˆ์•ก์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


๐Ÿ“Œ ์š”์•ฝ๋œ ์‹
FCF = ์„ธํ›„์˜์—…์ด์ต + ๊ฐ๊ฐ€์ƒ๊ฐ๋น„ โ€“ ์šด์ „์ž๋ณธ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ โ€“ ์ž๋ณธ์  ์ง€์ถœ
์ด ์ˆ˜์น˜๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ DCF(ํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„ ํ• ์ธ๋ฒ•)๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ธฐ์—…์˜ ๋‚ด์žฌ๊ฐ€์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ณ„์‚ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


๐ŸŸฆ 5. ์‹ค์ œ DCF ์˜ˆ์‹œ ๋ถ„์„

  • ๋งค์ถœ, COGS, SG&A, ์„ธ๊ธˆ ๋“ฑ ์‹ค์ œ ์ถ”์ •๊ฐ’ ๋ฐ˜์˜
  • WACC: 10.1%, ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ  1% ๊ฐ€์ •
  • FCFF์™€ Terminal Value ์ถ”์ • โ†’ EV ๋„์ถœ
  • ์ตœ์ข… ์ฃผ๋‹น๊ฐ€์น˜ = ์ฃผ์ฃผ๊ฐ€์น˜ รท ๋ฐœํ–‰์ฃผ์‹ ์ˆ˜

๐ŸŸฆ 6. ๊ธฐํƒ€ ์ˆ˜์ต ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ๋ชจ๋ธ

๋ฐฉ์‹ ์„ค๋ช… ํ• ์ธ์œจ

DDM๋ฐฐ๋‹น ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€Cost of Equity
FCFE์ฃผ์ฃผ๊ท€์† ํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„ ๊ธฐ์ค€Cost of Equity
RIM์ž‰์—ฌ์ด์ต (์ดˆ๊ณผ์ด์ต) ๋ชจ๋ธCost of Equity
EVAEconomic Value AddedWACC

๐Ÿ”” โ€œํ• ์ธ์œจ์€ ๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ ํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„์˜ ์†์„ฑ๊ณผ ์ผ์น˜ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•จโ€


๐ŸŸฆ 7. ์‹ค์‚ฌ(Due Diligence) ํ•ญ๋ชฉ

  • ์žฌ๋ฌด์‹ค์‚ฌ (FDD): ์†์ต/์žฌ๋ฌด์ œํ‘œ ๋ถ„์„, ๋งค์ถœ ๊ณ„์ ˆ์„ฑ ๋“ฑ
  • ์ƒ์—…์‹ค์‚ฌ (CDD): ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์‚ฌ/์‹œ์žฅ ๋น„๊ต
  • ๋ฒ•๋ฌด์‹ค์‚ฌ (LDD), ์„ธ๋ฌด์‹ค์‚ฌ (TDD) ๋“ฑ ๋ณ‘ํ–‰
  • ์˜ˆ์‹œ: ๊ฐ์‹ค๋งค์ถœ, F&B, ์›๊ฐ€ ๋ถ„์„, ์‹œ์ฆŒ์„ฑ ๋งค์ถœ ์ฐจ์ด ๋“ฑ

๐ŸŸฆ 8. ์‚ฐ์—…๋ณ„ ์‹ค์  ์ถ”์ • (ํƒ€์ด์–ด์‚ฐ์—… ์˜ˆ์‹œ)

Top-down ๋ฐฉ์‹

  • ์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰ ๋“ฑ๋ก๋Œ€์ˆ˜, ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Œ€์ˆ˜ โ†’ ํƒ€์ด์–ด ์ˆ˜์š” ์œ ์ถ”
  • RE(๊ต์ฒด์šฉ) vs OE(์‹ ์ฐจ์šฉ) ํŒ๋งค๋Ÿ‰ ๋ถ„๋ฆฌ

Bottom-up ๋ฐฉ์‹

  • ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ค๋น„ ํˆฌ์ž๊ณ„ํš (CAPEX), ์„ค๋น„๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  โ†’ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ์ถ”์ •
  • ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ = ๊ฐ€๋™์‹œ๊ฐ„ x ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋‹น ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰

๐ŸŸฆ 9. ์ธ๊ฑด๋น„ ๋ฐ ๋ณต๋ฆฌํ›„์ƒ๋น„ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ

  • ์ž„์ง์› ์ˆ˜ ๊ธฐ์ค€ ๋ณด๋„ˆ์Šค, ๊ธ‰์—ฌ, ํ‡ด์ง๊ธ‰์—ฌ ๋ถ„๋ฆฌ
  • ์™ธ๊ตญ์ธ ๊ทผ๋กœ์ž ํ‰๊ท  ์—ฐ๋ด‰, ๋ณต์ง€๋น„, ๋ณดํ—˜๋ฃŒ ๋“ฑ ์„ธ๋ถ€ ๋ฐ˜์˜
  • ์‚ฌํšŒ๋ณดํ—˜ ํ•ญ๋ชฉ๋ณ„ ํšŒ์‚ฌ ๋ถ€๋‹ด๋ฅ  (์˜ˆ: ๊ตญ๋ฏผ์—ฐ๊ธˆ 4.5%, ๊ฑด๊ฐ•๋ณดํ—˜ 3.23%)

๐ŸŸฆ 10. ์š”์•ฝ: Valuation ํ•ต์‹ฌ ๊ณต์‹๋“ค

EV = PV(FCFF) + ๋น„์˜์—…์ž์‚ฐ Equity Value = EV โ€“ ์ˆœ๋ถ€์ฑ„ FCFF = EBIT(1โ€“t) + D&A โ€“ ฮ”WC โ€“ CAPEX

๋ฐ˜์‘ํ˜•